Air lines industry faces worst environment in 50 Years

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced its forecast for 2009 showing an industry loss of US$2.5 billion. All regions, except the US, are expected to report larger losses in 2009 than in 2008.

Industry revenues are expected to decline to US$501 billion. This a fall of US$35 billion from the US$536 billion in revenues forecasted for 2008. This drop in revenues is the first since the two consecutive years of decline in 2001 and 2002.

Yields will decline by 3.0% (5.3% when adjusted for exchange rates and inflation).

Passenger traffic is expected to decline by 3% following growth of 2% in 2008. This is the first decline in passenger traffic since the 2.7% drop in 2001.

Cargo traffic is expected to decline by 5%, following a drop of 1.5% in 2008. Prior to 2008 the last time that cargo declined was in 2001 when a 6% drop was recorded.

The 2009 oil price is expected to average US$60 per barrel (Brent) for a total bill of US$142 billion. This is US$32 billion lower than in 2008 when oil averaged US$100 per barrel (Brent).

“The outlook is bleak. The chronic industry crisis will continue into 2009 with US$2.5 billion in losses. We face the worst revenue environment in 50 years,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

IATA also updated its forecast for 2008 to a loss of US$5.0 billion. This is slightly improved from the US$5.2 billion loss projected in the Association’s September forecast primarily as a result of the rapid decline in fuel prices.

The reduction in industry losses from 2008 to 2009 is primarily due to a shift in the results of North American carriers. Carriers in this region were hardest hit by high fuel prices with very limited hedging and are expected to post the largest industry losses for 2008 at US$3.9 billion. An early 10% domestic capacity reduction in response to the fuel crisis has given the region’s carriers a head-start in combating the recession-led fall in demand. The lack of hedging is now allowing the region’s carriers to take full advantage of rapidly declining spot fuel prices. As a result, North American carriers are expected to post a small profit of US$300 million in 2009. “North America will be the only region in the black, but the expected US$300 million profit is less than 1% of their revenue. 2009 will be another tough year for everyone,” said Bisignani.<Korea Shipping Gazette>